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Google is burning diesel to run AI. Really
Here’s a detail from the AI boom nobody wants printed.
In parts of America, the data centers training the world’s most advanced AI are being kept online by diesel generators.
Diesel. In 2026.
Running the most sophisticated machines ever built.
Not because anyone wants to.
Because the grid physically ran out.
Utility wait times have stretched past five years.
Morgan Stanley projects a 49-gigawatt shortfall by 2028.
That’s 49 power plants that don’t exist yet.
Solar quits at sunset. Wind quits when it quits. Nuclear takes a decade.
And these companies signed binding zero-carbon pledges, so natural gas is off the table.
They need clean power, around the clock, now.
One energy source delivers exactly that.
And one company controls it.
Google already signed a 15-year contract.
| What's Surprising |
Russia used to be the world's second-largest arms exporter. In 2016–2020, it held a 21% share of global transfers. Five years later: 6.8%. A decline of 64%. It is the only country in the top 10 whose exports fell. Sanctions, factory capacity diverted to the war in Ukraine, and lost customers explain the collapse. Three quarters of what Russia still exports goes to just three buyers: India, China, and Belarus.
France moved into the gap. It now holds 9.8% of global arms exports, nearly tripling Russia's once-dominant position. Rafale fighter jets, submarines, and frigates account for the bulk of it. Paris has pending orders for 180+ combat aircraft.
Italy is the other mover. It climbed from 10th to 6th in one cycle, with 59% of its exports going to the Middle East. Israel rose 56% and surpassed the United Kingdom for 7th place, driven by demand for drones and missile-defense systems.
| What's Not Surprising |
The United States is in a league of its own. It exported arms to 99 countries in 2021–2025. Its 42% share is 4.3 times larger than France at #2. No other market on Earth is this concentrated around a single seller.
What shifted is the destination. For the first time in two decades, the largest share of American arms exports went to Europe (38%) rather than the Middle East (33%). U.S. arms transfers to Europe rose 217%. Ukraine is part of that story, but so is Poland, the UK, the Netherlands, and Norway — all racing to rearm.
Six of the top 10 exporters are NATO members. Together, they account for 68% of global arms transfers. The alliance doesn't just field the world's largest military — it builds and sells the hardware that equips most of the rest.
| Five Numbers Worth Remembering |
42%
The United States' share of global arms exports in 2021–2025. Up from 36% in the previous five-year period.
–64%
The decline in Russian arms exports from 2016–2020 to 2021–2025. The largest drop of any country in the top 10.
217%
The increase in U.S. arms exports to Europe between the two periods. Ukraine, Poland, and the UK were the top three European arms importers overall.
99
Countries that received U.S. arms in 2021–2025. That is more than half the world's sovereign states.
$2,887 billion
World military expenditure in 2025. The eleventh consecutive annual increase. The market for arms has never been larger.
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The Bottom Line
One country sells 42% of the world's weapons. Russia used to sell 21%. Now it sells 6.8%. The war in Ukraine reshaped the arms trade — and America won. |
| What to Watch |
South Korea is a rising exporter on this list. Its share grew from 2.6% to 3.0%, and its order book — K2 tanks for Poland, KF-21 fighters in development — is expanding. Turkey, just outside the top 10, has more than doubled its total arms exports in five years. The next SIPRI data update arrives in March 2027. Between now and then, European defense budgets will keep climbing, and orders placed in 2023 and 2024 will start to deliver. We'll be watching.
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