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The 10 Countries That Grow the Most Coffee in the World |
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Yesterday was International Coffee Day, and the first day of a new coffee year. The US Department of Agriculture expects a record 189.7 million bags this season. Brazil will grow 71.9 million of them, more than the next four countries combined. The biggest coffee-drinking country grows almost none. |
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Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Coffee: World Markets and Trade, July 2026 (released July 22, 2026). Production forecast for 2026/27, 60-kg bags. |
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| What's Surprising |
Brazil will grow 71.9 million bags this season. That is 38% of all the coffee on Earth, and more than Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia and Indonesia put together. The world crop is set to rise 10.8 million bags. Brazil supplies 8.9 million of that increase on its own. Most of it is arabica, which rebounds 9.5 million bags to 47.5 million.
Vietnam is second, with 32.5 million bags, and ships 89% of it abroad. Almost all of the crop is robusta, the hardier bean that goes into instant coffee and supermarket blends. Vietnam now grows more than twice as much coffee as Colombia. Its exports earned more than $6 billion in the first eight months of 2026. Volume rose 10%. Value fell 11%.
Ethiopia is fourth with a record 12.1 million bags, and closing on Colombia. Arabica was born in its forests. Ethiopians will drink 5 million bags of it this year, 41% of the crop. Five years ago they drank 3.4 million. Uganda, sixth, sells abroad 95% of what it grows.
| What's Not Surprising |
Ten countries grow 89% of the world's coffee. Everyone else in the USDA table, from Guatemala to Kenya, splits the remaining 11%. Coffee needs frost-free hills and steady rain, and only a handful of countries have a lot of both. Indonesia is the only one of the top five expected to grow less this year, down 1.0 million bags.
The drinkers live somewhere else. The United States will drink 27.0 million bags this year. The European Union will drink 42.5 million. Neither appears in the USDA's production table. Between them they drink more coffee than Vietnam and Colombia grow together.
Brazil is the exception. It grows the most and drinks the second most of any single country, 22.4 million bags. China is the one to watch. It grows 1.9 million bags and drinks 6.75 million, up 37% in five years. It is now within 150,000 bags of Japan. Mexico, tenth, drinks 78% of what it grows.
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38% Brazil's share of the world's coffee this season: 71.9 million of 189.7 million bags. More than the next four growers combined. |
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82% Share of this year's 10.8-million-bag rise in world output that comes from Brazil alone. Its harvest is up 8.9 million bags. |
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25% How far coffee prices fell in seven months as the bigger crops arrived, measured by the International Coffee Organization's composite price. |
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41% Share of Ethiopia's record 12.1-million-bag crop that Ethiopians will drink themselves. Five years ago they drank 3.4 million bags. |
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35–40% Share of Vietnam's coffee that can meet the EU's new deforestation rules, says the Vietnam Coffee Cocoa Association. The rules start December 30. |
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Three things. The EU's deforestation rules apply to large importers from December 30, and Vietnam's growers say only 35–40% of their coffee is ready. The USDA's next coffee update is due in December. Conab, Brazil's crop agency, puts this year's harvest at 67.6 million bags, 4.3 million below the USDA. Brazil's trees flower with the spring rains, and that flowering sets the 2027 crop. If the rains fail, prices turn up again. We'll be watching. |
