The Power Index ranks five major capital buckets by relative performance for the weekly window (Mon close → Fri close). U.S. Equities are proxied by SPY, Treasuries by IEF, Commodities by DBC, Gold by GLD, and Bitcoin by BTC spot close.
Treasuries move to #1 after sitting third the prior window. Bitcoin falls to #5 for the first time in three weeks. The top and bottom changed simultaneously — that is not drift. That is reordering.
Ranked: The Defensive Tilt
Treasuries gained approximately +0.9% for the window as the 10-year yield compressed toward 3.97%. Duration is being paid. That is capital choosing stability.
Gold ranks second, up roughly +1.4% for the week. Hard assets are not leading — but they are being accumulated. Commodities, despite oil’s late-week surge, sit third overall because energy strength was offset by softness in base metals earlier in the window. The gain was concentrated, not broad.
U.S. equities fall to fourth, down approximately -1.2% on the week. SPY underperformed IEF by over two percentage points. That spread matters. It is capital preferring certainty over earnings sensitivity.
Bitcoin ranks last, down roughly -3.5% over the same window. Two consecutive lower-half finishes now become one bottom-of-table print. That is not narrative. It is participation absence. (RankHistory | 2 windows lower-half | as of Mar 2)
Contribution data reinforces the concentration. Treasuries and Gold accounted for over 80% of the cumulative positive performance inside the universe this week. (Contribution | top-2 share | 1w | as of Mar 2) This was not diversified strength. It was selective defense.
Cross-layer confirmation appears in volatility. The VIX rose above 19 during the window. Credit spreads widened modestly. (HY spread | 5d | as of Mar 2) The top of the ranking and credit behavior align. That is a synchronized defensive posture.
This is not a collapse regime. Commodities are still positive year-to-date. Equities remain near multi-week highs. But within this window, capital chose duration and gold first.
Positional Takeaways
Treasuries reclaim #1. Money is paying for stability.
Gold remains elevated. Hard-asset demand persists.
Equities slip below commodities. Risk appetite narrowed.
Bitcoin sits last. Capital is not expressing risk through crypto.
The structure is defensive — but selectively so.
The unresolved tension: Treasuries lead while oil surges at the same time. Duration strength and energy strength rarely dominate together for long. The hierarchy shows both — which means something underneath is being repriced, not yet resolved.
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